Tag Archives: Ray Allen

Jan 13 11:08 AM EDT

Warning: Injuries, rushed preseason likely sign of more NBA injuries to come!

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I remember an interview with Boston Celtic’s SG, Ray Allen, and his response to the initials concerns surrounding the NBA lockout.  He advised players to “Just stay in shape”.  Allen has had prior lockout experience and if I was a player in the NBA and wanted to trust anyone’s advice, it’s going to be that of the 3-point NBA King!

I found a published article in a respected medical journal about injury ramifications on the effects of lockouts.  The study looks closely at  achilles tendon injuries in the NFL, but suggests for the NBA as well.  Sports medicine expert, Timothy Hewett , PhD, Director of Research at The Ohio State University Medical Center’s sports medicine department suggests that NBA sports injuries, in response to a 149-Day lockout will increase at a rate of 2, 3, 4 times higher than in the NFL, because of longer duration.

In fact, already 4 days into the NBA pre-season, Boston’s SF, Paul Pierce, has sustained a heel injury preventing him from practice.  Pierce has injury history with the achilles tendon in past seasons that have hampered his minutes in games.  He is currently sitting out preseason team practices.

Pretty scarey stuff for fantasy players, but better to be prepared for BAD news, than losing hair and your bragging rights in your fantasy leagues!

The last NBA lockout, in 1998, forced just a 50-game season and really painted a clear picture of what happens when NBA players don’t practice and have shorten training camps before the season starts.

1.  Slower Games

When NBA players returned in 1998, the NBA saw much uglier, lower scoring games.  Teams averaged less possessions than in any other season and saw points per game drop to 91 PPG from 96-97 PPG. Because teams had less coaching and practice time, the ugliness extended all the way into the post-season.

2. Lower Efficiency

The biggest reason for the pace of games is lousy player efficiency. Just take a look at the drop off in player percentages from 97-98 in the lockout shortened season among all players who averaged 10 or more minutes per game:

Points: -6%

Rebounds: -3%

Assists: -7.4%

Blocks: -2.6%

FG%: -2%

3-Pt. FG%: -2%

3.  Out of Shape Players

The biggest question mark at the start of the season will be which players actually kept in basketball shape in the off-season. We saw many star players participate in various exhibition games but with close to 400 players in the league (and rookies) we can only guess right now.  Big name players also played overseas, therefore a fair assumption can be made that physical conditioning for players will be inconsistent.

In both the 98 NBA lockout and the 2011 NFL lockout, we saw players who were not ready to play and their stats suffered dramatically.

 4. Who is Going Where?

With free agency and trading now underway, it is impossible to know where some key players will end up. With the destination of free agents like Dwight Howard, CP3, Nene Hilario, Jamal Crawford, and David West up in the air (as well as potential trade bait like Rajon Rondo), it is going to be almost impossible to draft your league well before Christmas Day.

Fantasy Advice:

So we already know that efficiency, pace, and individual performance will be down on the part of many players, what to do?

Draft As Late As Possible: Some Fantasy Basketball enthusiasts are already itching to hold a draft – if you have any say, try to push the draft back as much as possible since we won’t know everyone’s destination until the end of the two-week training camp, and probably even after that.

Draft Young: Avoid older players and players who are injury prone. Older players will be at the largest disadvantage because they need that all-too-important training camp and pre-season to stretch out and get their bodies back into game shape.

Avoid Rookies: Rookies, on the other hand, are coming over from college with no idea of what to expect on their NBA teams. They have yet to learn their systems, play with their teammates, or even have a basketball discussion with their coaches. You need look no farther than the NFL to see how much rookies need the pre-season.

Prepare To Pay Attention: There are a lot of question marks around the league right now and the frenzy of upcoming moves won’t help much. Be prepared to keep tabs on the league all year to quickly identify the breakout and sleeper talent, it won’t happen in the draft.  Monitor player injuries and research player injury history to calculate risk for your fantasy rosters.

 

Dec 03 10:39 PM EDT

Fantasy Basketball Team Injury Analysis: 2011-2012 Boston Celtics

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We’re continuing team injury analysis of every NBA team by looking at the Boston Celtics!

Things To Consider:
1. Average “Age” on Boston Celtics: 28.2 years of age

2. Average “Age” of Boston’s “Big Four”(including Rondo): 32.5 years of age

A shortened season could be good and bad news for the Celtics. “Aged” stars and “back-to-back” games for the 2011-2012 NBA season are going to require a heavier concentration for Celtic’s president, Danny Ainge. REMINDER: Injuries cause more missed “playing time” in players age 30 or older. click here for review!
Recent reports suggest Ainge might be looking to trade Rajon Rondo(PG) for Chris Paul(PG), but why Rondo, of all players? Rondo is part of the “Big Four” in senior green? Could Rondo’s elbow injury be a factor for the trade talks? Does Danny Ainge know something we don’t yet?
If there is a relationship between Rondo’s elbow injury and Ainge initiating trade talks, then Rondo’s playing status for Boston or another team could have some major impact on your fantasy rosters.

Here’s how…

Player: Rajon Rondo
Height/Weight:6-1/171
Birthdate:02/22/1986
Age:25

Injury: Left Elbow Dislocation

Date Injured: May 2011

Things to Consider:
A big fact for consideration is that Rondo did NOT have surgery and has had plenty of time to rehab the injury due to the NBA lockout, but is Rondo completely healed? Rondo has confirmed he’s 100%, but that doesn’t mean he’s 100% back to his playing condition. The 149-day lockout cut his training camp and preseason drastically short. A big need for the Celtics bench is scoring this season. Remember, there are veteran’s on this team(#3 of them), and Paul Pierce(“The Truth”) needs scoring help. Danny Ainge is essentially looking for this in a point guard and may be the reason to trade for CP3.
Rondo really hasn’t had much time to work on his shooting, let alone be comfortable with scoring as a part of his offensive arsenal-something even President Obama criticized him for last season. If Rondo is traded to another team, say the New Orleans Hornets, his scoring percentage may increase, but not enough for a 1st or even 2nd round draft pick in fantasy leagues.  We have yet to see if Rondo can make up for the difference in assists and rebounds, WITHOUT being in a green jersey.

Player: Ray Allen
Height/Weight: 6-5/205
Birthdate: 07/20/1975
Age: 36

Things to Consider:
Allen has a solid year in Boston last season. This 3-point record holder continues to play well despite his age (he turns 36 in July) and it’s because he stays in great physical condition. Consider drafting with a mid-round pick this season. Allen exercised the player option on a two-year, $20 million contract, returning for a fifth season. Expect Allen to put up good numbers in the 2011-2012 season, if not same as last season. His playing minutes should stay the same.

Player: Kevin Garnett
Height/Weight: 6-11/253
Birthdate: 05/19/1976
Age: 35

Things to Consider:
Garnett is headed into a contract year this year, so with NEW contract motivation lingering, consider Garnett a mid-round pick here, but the days of drafting based on his name are over. Monitor Garnett’s RECENT production on the floor, nothing more. Back-to-back games will be an obstacle for the veteran, who’s minutes have already been significantly reduced. Look for the double-doubles (points and rebounds) by Garnett as CONSISTENT, but still occasional.

Player: Paul Pierce
Height/Weight: 6-7/235
Birthdate: 10/13/1977
Age: 34

Things to Consider:
“The Truth” is STILL the truth! Pierce continues to put up solid numbers and still plays at a high level, even at 34, but his playing minutes will be LESS this season. There is much speculation as to weather Pierce will even start this season or come off the bench behind Jeff Green, but Green hasn’t confirmed his scoring role as of yet, therefore helping the trade rumors about Ainge looking for a PG who can score, even more believable. Although, Pierce has #3 years remains on his contract with the Celtics, ending his career in Boston should happen. Monitor the wire on who starts at the SF position. Consider drafting Pierce with an early round pick.

Bonus Video!